Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.240523 3.878157 4.589586 5.439466 6.424237 7.526431 8.850339
2025-04-27 2.287361 3.130987 4.183373 5.579550 7.368388 9.567254 12.456264
2025-05-04 1.733766 2.665363 3.943061 5.791723 8.359998 11.758164 16.541422
2025-05-11 1.310743 2.238619 3.623561 5.784809 9.001941 13.528781 20.271739
2025-05-18 0.975562 1.840664 3.237931 5.574400 9.274261 14.770175 23.368477
2025-05-25 0.724465 1.504813 2.863441 5.286616 9.347615 15.682239 26.035562
2025-06-01 0.574389 1.302810 2.659955 5.222973 9.736263 17.079050 29.535016
2025-06-08 0.459883 1.135672 2.478839 5.155377 10.089386 18.431425 33.066840
2025-06-15 0.408098 1.083081 2.499247 5.449106 11.093680 20.937661 38.678960
2025-06-22 0.341356 0.978313 2.393157 5.479303 11.615654 22.660679 43.115117
2025-06-29 0.284803 0.880971 2.281463 5.475771 12.064798 24.285162 47.502613
2025-07-06 0.237140 0.791575 2.167923 5.446533 12.452747 25.823286 51.848692
2025-07-13 0.221776 0.787645 2.256199 5.877538 13.834779 29.363237 60.163343
2025-07-20 0.194197 0.740625 2.232190 6.056114 14.723434 32.060701 67.167887
2025-07-27 0.173070 0.706551 2.233955 6.294651 15.766991 35.149660 75.148218
2025-08-03 0.145625 0.642110 2.141479 6.290997 16.280001 37.230615 81.357849
2025-08-10 0.115843 0.557312 1.972352 6.065808 16.264176 38.233114 85.534371
2025-08-17 0.089674 0.473717 1.784670 5.756279 16.007948 38.703614 88.674419
2025-08-24 0.074220 0.425759 1.693156 5.687861 16.313806 40.385544 94.386975
2025-08-31 0.061368 0.382658 1.605920 5.615071 16.597390 42.038136 100.150623
2025-09-07 0.057265 0.378751 1.650260 5.931571 17.898158 46.044238 111.129305
2025-09-14 0.049128 0.350634 1.602497 5.964106 18.467636 48.441329 118.817877
2025-09-21 0.041724 0.322215 1.546133 5.960304 18.940114 50.651657 126.245264